CTS Spotlight for the week of March 26, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's CTS Spotlight



03/26/10: The US dollar bull target has been hit amid the continuing debt problems of the now notorious 'PIGS' of the Euro region. It is interesting to see how the metals in general have held up during the US dollar bull run. Could this be an omen of when the market's attention will again be focused on the US? The bond market looks dangerous these days with the 10 year US Treasury approaching an important pivot. A few of the major debt markets have broken under the European strain, can a general move higher in rates be far ahead? While many markets have held onto their 2009-2010 gains, I thought for this week's CTS blog we would take a look at one that hasn't, Sugar. So look there for more on that...


Sugar has been all over the place of late. Prices started to move higher in earnest through 2009. CTS wanted you long from the higher highs made in June and July 2009 but looking at the monthly chart, there where numerous buy points the whole way up. After a consolidation at the top end of a 10 year price channel, I was content to see the long position get stopped out in the fall of 2009. The subsequent move straight up through 'Q1 2010 was surprising to say the least and I felt that I really missed the boat there. The market then reversed and has come crashing down to well below where CTS suggested for longs to be stopped out. What a wild ride! Yet looking at the monthly chart, the recent crash appears to be quite classic in nature. The move to the top of the 10 year channel was the end of the move, not the beginning. Unfortunately, we see these blow off tops (where no-one really has any business being in) tear people apart and lead to financial ruin. Be it Tech stocks, Oil, or in this case, Sugar, understanding the bigger picture, and being very conservative pays off...

As for thoughts on Sugar now; the long term and medium term 50% levels currently sit around $.20 and I would bet that will act as a magnet on the way back up in the not too distant future. There is no reason to be long now, but you can bet CTS will let you know when you should...

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com