Saturday, July 25, 2009

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 24, 2009

Hello and welcome back to CRI's WCTS Spotlight



072409: The major trading currencies continue their recent upward trends vs. the US dollar as many central banks have declared that the worst of the economic slowdown may be behind us. This has also vaulted many of the world equity markets to new relative highs (refer to this weeks WCTS blog for more). At the same time many bond markets are moving lower reflecting the perception that inflation rather than deflation ought to be the concern going forward. As highlighted in the July edition of the CRI newsletter, the period from the end of July through the Labor day weekend may possibly see a 'blow-off-top' in many markets as long standing upside targets are finally being hit. Once September is upon us, all best are off! Commodity prices themselves have generally remained within their previously report trends. Of notable exception; Cocoa has broken to the upside and Oats have broken to the downside.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

Saturday, July 18, 2009

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 17, 2009

Hello and welcome back to CRI's WCTS Spotlight



071709: A very real risk during 'fear cycles' are dramatic rallies in commodity prices that seem to come out of nowhere. This week saw several of these rallies - where prices had broken down and long positions had been 'stopped-out' only to see violent swings back to the upside on light volume. Specifically, The Nasdaq 100, Orange Juice and Cotton (refer to this weeks WCTS blog for more) have reversed their recent bearish price action and forged to new relative highs. While I am reluctant to assume new positions in this notoriously light volume time of year, one can't help but appreciate these quick bullish reversals during this 17.5 year 'fear cycle'. Shorts ought to be careful for the remainder of July and through the dog days of August.


That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

Sunday, July 5, 2009

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 03, 2009

Hello and welcome back to RI's WCTS Spotlight



070309: As the second quarter has come to an end, many of the predominant trends in the commodity markets are starting to break down. While few new signals have been registered, quite a few 'stop's' have been hit suggesting the dead cat bounce off the panic lows from last fall/winter have exhausted themselves. Of note this week - crude oil and corn look toppy while natural gas and wheat look like they are getting ready for a serious push lower. I'll keep watching the first two weeks of the quarter play out before making any serious predictions for the entire quarter, but June's rather poor US employment situation report (published July 2nd) cast a very negative tone on the broader market and it looks like that negative inertia is gaining momentum.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com