CTS Spotlight for the week of April 16, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's CTS Spotlight



04/16/10: The currencies remain little changed this week in the face of a daily top in the US dollar. The posted upside target for the greenback was hit and it remains to be seen whether this short term top will turn into a weekly top. While this going on, gold has moved up to break its weekly top suggesting prices have found a good deal of buying interest just above $1000. Elsewhere, the soy complex is starting to show signs of strength as we head out of the seasonally 'demand' driven market and head into the 'supply' driven market. Please refer to CTS blog for more on that...

Soybeans: Basically reiterating what I wrote on the chart. Massive weekly wedge appears to have broken to the upside. We are finishing up the 2009-2010 crop with a base in and around 900. Should there be any fears of flood or drought price could move higher in earnest. Regardless, the current weekly 50% and the highs from late 2009 sit in and around the 1085 area, so that shall be my initial upside target as we head into the spring planting season.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of April 02, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's CTS Spotlight



04/02/10: There is little change to the broader commodity markets as we head into the Easter holiday weekend. Equities continue to rise, bond markets look weak and the US dollar continues its dead-cat-bounce. Industrial metals are outperforming precious, crude continues to dominate over Nat. gas and the meats continue to outperform the grains (where Corn has now joined the bearish camp). Most notable this week, the Japanese Yen has broken down in earnest (refer to this weeks CTS for more on that)...

Japanese Yen: This currency (along with many others) has been on a wild ride against the US dollar over the past few years. First it lost almost 20% of its value then turned around and appreciated more than 40%. One may even argue it has acted as more of a 'safe haven' than the greenback. Notice how the Yen bottomed at almost the exact time the S&P 500 topped out. Has this violent move higher played itself out?

From a monthly perspective (chart on right) we see that the current 50% level and the highs from late 2004 sit around the .985 area. I would be willing to bet there will be a fair amount of support at or near that level (or another .07 lower to go).

From a weekly perspective (chart on left) we see that over the past two weeks the market has confirmed a massive double top price patten. Prices have not only established a new weekly downtrend but have also broken through the uptrend governing this entire bull run.

Something significant is happening here people! Keep in mind, the gold market has been trending lower for 10 weeks, the US Dollar index has been trending higher for 11 weeks and the Eurodollar (that is the corporate US short term interest rate market) has been trending lower for 7 weeks. The market knows something...will any in the broader media catch it? only time will tell, but my hunch is no...

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com