WCTS Spotlight for the week of December 04th, 2009

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12/04/09: After the release of an encouraging North American November employment situation reports, the US dollar rallied smartly and gold fell appreciably. Interestingly, this price action did not break any existing trends (in either the currencies or the metals) and on further inspection one gets the impression that Friday's move was more of a daily oversold bounce rather than the emergence of any new trends going forward. I shall continue to look for the US dollar index to test its 2007 lows in earnest (at or near the 72 level). Elsewhere, most of the existing trends in commodity prices have remained in tact with the notable exception of Live Cattle. While very early, a weekly sell signal has been generated and a break of the 79 level could lead to a big drop in price very much like the action seen in the Pork Bellies market earlier this year.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of November 6th, 2009

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11/06/09: The US dollar continues to drift lower - showing no signs of a bottom yet. As a result, commodity prices and most of the greenback's trading pairs are comfortably pointing higher. The one currency that looked vulnerable, The British Pound, looks to be testing its' top in earnest. The one market that stands out is Pork bellies, but considering the oddity of the pork trading complex it may just be a case of contract expiry that launches prices up to the anticipated target of 127. Regardless, refer to this weeks' commodity trading blog for more...

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of October 30, 2009

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10/30/09: A small bounce in the US dollar index occurred this week as the bear slide in the greenback hits its 1/2 year mark. While the bear flagpole formation suggested downside targets would come in near 77, there isn't a tradable bottom in the US dollar index yet. Most existing price patterns continue to exert themselves with just a couple markets breaking their existing trends. Two charts of note this week include the Canadian stock market (refer to WCTS 10/30) and a rather large bull flag pole formation in Pork Bellies.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of October 23, 2009

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10/23/09: The US Dollar continues its march lower and is looking to test the lows of July, 2008 at or near 71.71. The reflation of the world economy has rallied many commodity prices back into their pre-crash trading ranges and one ought to (at least for the short term) look for higher prices to come. Most notably, Crude Oil and Heating Oil have broken their recent respective 'tops' and Soy Oil has put in a very interesting base. As well, both coffee and OJ look like they have completed a basing pattern and could 'pop' on any bullish market news very much like sugar did recently.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week ofSeptember 25, 2009

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09/25/09: After a lengthy vacation, CRI is back reporting on the weekly trends in prices. The US dollar continues to move lower vs most of its major trading partners. The British Pound would be a notable exception as economic conditions have worsened there and the pound looks to be pointing lower vs. the green back. Of particular interest this week, energy prices have moved lower in earnest. Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline have well established tops in place and one ought to be looking for lower prices going forward.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of August 07, 2009

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08/07/09: The dog days of summer are upon us and one can't help but get the feeling that the markets have lulled themselves to sleep. One ought to be very careful about new long positions as many of the followed markets have both hit long standing upside objectives (and in some cases) have over-extended themselves. Of particular note this week, the pork markets have collapsed as the prospects for higher grain prices have become a reality heading into the fall harvest and health concerns over hot-dogs themselves weigh heavily on demand.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 31, 2009

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07/31/09: The US Dollar has resumed its downward trend as the lows from the spring have been broken. The Canadian and Australian dollars are moving higher suggesting commodity prices in general ought to hold their respective trends through the dog-days of summer. One market not participating, hogs, looks to be getting ready for a serious push lower going forward. This week's spotlight looks at the Canadian stock and bond markets as they are both suggesting Canada's economy continues the rebound established late last winter.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 24, 2009

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072409: The major trading currencies continue their recent upward trends vs. the US dollar as many central banks have declared that the worst of the economic slowdown may be behind us. This has also vaulted many of the world equity markets to new relative highs (refer to this weeks WCTS blog for more). At the same time many bond markets are moving lower reflecting the perception that inflation rather than deflation ought to be the concern going forward. As highlighted in the July edition of the CRI newsletter, the period from the end of July through the Labor day weekend may possibly see a 'blow-off-top' in many markets as long standing upside targets are finally being hit. Once September is upon us, all best are off! Commodity prices themselves have generally remained within their previously report trends. Of notable exception; Cocoa has broken to the upside and Oats have broken to the downside.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 17, 2009

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071709: A very real risk during 'fear cycles' are dramatic rallies in commodity prices that seem to come out of nowhere. This week saw several of these rallies - where prices had broken down and long positions had been 'stopped-out' only to see violent swings back to the upside on light volume. Specifically, The Nasdaq 100, Orange Juice and Cotton (refer to this weeks WCTS blog for more) have reversed their recent bearish price action and forged to new relative highs. While I am reluctant to assume new positions in this notoriously light volume time of year, one can't help but appreciate these quick bullish reversals during this 17.5 year 'fear cycle'. Shorts ought to be careful for the remainder of July and through the dog days of August.


That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of July 03, 2009

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070309: As the second quarter has come to an end, many of the predominant trends in the commodity markets are starting to break down. While few new signals have been registered, quite a few 'stop's' have been hit suggesting the dead cat bounce off the panic lows from last fall/winter have exhausted themselves. Of note this week - crude oil and corn look toppy while natural gas and wheat look like they are getting ready for a serious push lower. I'll keep watching the first two weeks of the quarter play out before making any serious predictions for the entire quarter, but June's rather poor US employment situation report (published July 2nd) cast a very negative tone on the broader market and it looks like that negative inertia is gaining momentum.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 19th, 2009

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061909: In another week of churning, many of the major commodity markets continued their recent trending activity. Of particular note this week, a few of the soft markets (coffee, sugar & cotton) are showing signs of weakness. Could this be the beginning of the end of the recent rally in commodity prices? It is too early to tell but it is interesting to note that the long bearish meat complex (a complex that moves in opposite direction to grain prices) has begun to show signs of strength. Considering our proximity to the end of the 2nd quarter, one might want to wait before putting on any new positions until the 3rd quarter had begun in earnest.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 12th, 2009

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061209: The major currencies did little this week as too the interest rate market. The S&P and Dow have confirmed their recent breakouts and now suggest that equities could be moving into a blow off top stage. This may culminate in a dramatic move to the upside. Unfortunately (as time tested technicians) we know that at some point we will need to come back down and test the winter '09 lows. The farther we move up without a serious counter trend test, the more severe the correction ultimately will be. Keep in mind, there are gaps on the S&P 500 right near the lows. Very interesting times indeed for equity investors. Elsewhere, most of the recent trends remain well intact with a bit of weakness coming in on Soy Oil and what looks to be a blow off bottom potentially forming in Pork Bellies (refer to this week's spotlight for more on that). We may be nearing a seasonal peak for the grains and meats so those involved be careful.



That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 5th, 2009

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060509: The anticipated pull back in the major currencies vs. the US Dollar materialized this week. While still too early to be looking for a trade, many of its trading pairs have hit their upside objectives and one ought to consider a period of consolidation before their next moves. Interestingly, gold never did break out (only breaking its recent sell pattern) suggesting that the greenback may not be as weak as its price suggests. In other markets, US equities finally broke the sell patterns going back more than half a year. While the Nasdaq, Australia and Japan where already pointing higher, the Dow and the S&P 500 noww too have bullish short/med. term chart patterns working (refer to this week's spotlight for more). Agriculturally speaking, grain prices continue to look up at the same time as meat prices are breaking to new lows. While I have been a proponent of being long the grains of late, I have taken some profits as prices have moved up quite a bit. I will be looking to re-enter my long position on any correction.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 29th, 2009

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052909: Downside targets have been hit on the US dollar index. Those playing the currencies should be aware of potentially over-extended short term pairs and act accordingly. Bond markets too are looking to be over extended as interest rates have moved higher in earnest over the past weeks. As a result of this straight move up, short term profit taking ought to be considered in this environment. Even though many of the commodity markets are moving higher, the only market to register a new buy signal this week was Lumber (see this weeks spotlight for more details).


That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 22th, 2009

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052209: The Euro has now joined almost the entire world in its collective rally against the US dollar. Interestingly, Gold is now the only metal not to break out higher as Silver is now pointing higher along with Copper, Platinum and Palladium (this weeks WCTS spotlight is on Silver). Energies and Grains continue to power forward. Readers of CRI's Newsletter will of course be well aware of my bullishness on the two and my current long positions in their respective ETF's . Wheat still looks like it hasn't popped yet so if there was one market I might pick up a call in, it would be there.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 8th, 2009

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050809: The US dollar is breaking down vs some of its major trading partners as money leaves the 'safe haven' of US treasuries on the expectation that global economic growth will once again resume (please refer to RI's most recent special report on the Australian dollar for more). One result of the perceived end of 'the crisis' - bond markets are breaking down in earnest. It should be noted that the crash of 1987 was preceded by the bond market breaking down in the spring of that year. While the Dow and S&P 500 are still pointing lower, many other stock index's are moving higher in a classic 'V' shaped bottom. These lows ought to be tested again in the coming months if not quarters. Lets hope it doesn't come in just one day. Commodity prices are moving higher with notable price action in Heating Oil (Crude and Unleaded already moving higher) and many of the Grains. This week's spotlight is on just this market....watch out food prices!

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com/