CTS Spotlight for the week of March 05, 2010

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030510: In very choppy action, the US dollar moved little this week. It appears international money is flowing into North America of late as stability and growth are being repriced into the region. Interestingly, commodity prices (and the commodity currencies) have remained relatively firm in the face of this recent rally in the US dollar - which corresponds with our commodity/fear cycle thesis (Please refer to Q1'10 CRI Newsletter for more on that). Further to comments made last week re. Lean Hogs, Pork Bellies have broken out violently higher and look to want to move 30% higher over the coming weeks/months. This week's CTS Blog will look at the Energy Complex and what the charts are suggesting for the coming months.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of February 26, 2010

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02/26/10: Most of what was said in last weeks post remains in place. The US dollar is slowly working higher, while most commodities are working lower. Last week I pointed out a top in the Eurodollar market and have begun to accumulate Dec. put options there. And as pointed out, Cotton prices have moved higher aggressively. This week the most notable market appears to be Lean Hogs (refer to this week's commodity blog entry and TTA - Lean Hogs). The breakout suggest a move into the 90's and I will take a really good look at the Aug. 88 calls over the coming week.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of February 19, 2010

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02/19/10: A raise in one of the US Fed's key lending rates has given further credibility to the bottom in the US dollar and presented us with a short entry signal in the Eurodollar market (refer to TTA Special report issued 02/19/10 on Eurodollars and the chart above). While I am not looking for a substantial move higher in the greenback, a nice technical rally to both wash out the weak hands and satisfy some basic technical objectives seems likely - and an event like the US starting to bring its short term interest rates back to 'normal-icy' might just be the cause. Most commodity prices have remained stable to slightly weaker in the face of the US dollar rally with the noticeable exception in Cotton and the meat complex. We know meat prices move in opposite to grain prices so that action isn't a surprise. However, Cotton's move to new highs is eye opening in this market and suggests a further move into the .80's is most likely.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of February12, 2010

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02/12/10: After a period of little change, the currencies are trending once again. While I am not looking for substantial gains in the greenback, this long overdue bullish correction ought to satisfy the 50% rule and relieve its current oversold condition. At the same time, gold and silver prices have topped, lending further support to the notion of a general US dollar rally. Commodity prices in general should come under pressure in the face of a rising US dollar and that can be clearly seen currently in the grain, softs and energy complex. Because of its inverse relation to grain prices, meat prices have firmed and look to be heading higher after a long period of weakness.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of December 04th, 2009

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12/04/09: After the release of an encouraging North American November employment situation reports, the US dollar rallied smartly and gold fell appreciably. Interestingly, this price action did not break any existing trends (in either the currencies or the metals) and on further inspection one gets the impression that Friday's move was more of a daily oversold bounce rather than the emergence of any new trends going forward. I shall continue to look for the US dollar index to test its 2007 lows in earnest (at or near the 72 level). Elsewhere, most of the existing trends in commodity prices have remained in tact with the notable exception of Live Cattle. While very early, a weekly sell signal has been generated and a break of the 79 level could lead to a big drop in price very much like the action seen in the Pork Bellies market earlier this year.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of November 6th, 2009

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11/06/09: The US dollar continues to drift lower - showing no signs of a bottom yet. As a result, commodity prices and most of the greenback's trading pairs are comfortably pointing higher. The one currency that looked vulnerable, The British Pound, looks to be testing its' top in earnest. The one market that stands out is Pork bellies, but considering the oddity of the pork trading complex it may just be a case of contract expiry that launches prices up to the anticipated target of 127. Regardless, refer to this weeks' commodity trading blog for more...

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of October 30, 2009

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10/30/09: A small bounce in the US dollar index occurred this week as the bear slide in the greenback hits its 1/2 year mark. While the bear flagpole formation suggested downside targets would come in near 77, there isn't a tradable bottom in the US dollar index yet. Most existing price patterns continue to exert themselves with just a couple markets breaking their existing trends. Two charts of note this week include the Canadian stock market (refer to WCTS 10/30) and a rather large bull flag pole formation in Pork Bellies.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com