CTS Spotlight for the week of February 19, 2010

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02/19/10: A raise in one of the US Fed's key lending rates has given further credibility to the bottom in the US dollar and presented us with a short entry signal in the Eurodollar market (refer to TTA Special report issued 02/19/10 on Eurodollars and the chart above). While I am not looking for a substantial move higher in the greenback, a nice technical rally to both wash out the weak hands and satisfy some basic technical objectives seems likely - and an event like the US starting to bring its short term interest rates back to 'normal-icy' might just be the cause. Most commodity prices have remained stable to slightly weaker in the face of the US dollar rally with the noticeable exception in Cotton and the meat complex. We know meat prices move in opposite to grain prices so that action isn't a surprise. However, Cotton's move to new highs is eye opening in this market and suggests a further move into the .80's is most likely.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of February12, 2010

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02/12/10: After a period of little change, the currencies are trending once again. While I am not looking for substantial gains in the greenback, this long overdue bullish correction ought to satisfy the 50% rule and relieve its current oversold condition. At the same time, gold and silver prices have topped, lending further support to the notion of a general US dollar rally. Commodity prices in general should come under pressure in the face of a rising US dollar and that can be clearly seen currently in the grain, softs and energy complex. Because of its inverse relation to grain prices, meat prices have firmed and look to be heading higher after a long period of weakness.

That's all for this issue of the CTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of December 04th, 2009

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12/04/09: After the release of an encouraging North American November employment situation reports, the US dollar rallied smartly and gold fell appreciably. Interestingly, this price action did not break any existing trends (in either the currencies or the metals) and on further inspection one gets the impression that Friday's move was more of a daily oversold bounce rather than the emergence of any new trends going forward. I shall continue to look for the US dollar index to test its 2007 lows in earnest (at or near the 72 level). Elsewhere, most of the existing trends in commodity prices have remained in tact with the notable exception of Live Cattle. While very early, a weekly sell signal has been generated and a break of the 79 level could lead to a big drop in price very much like the action seen in the Pork Bellies market earlier this year.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of November 6th, 2009

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11/06/09: The US dollar continues to drift lower - showing no signs of a bottom yet. As a result, commodity prices and most of the greenback's trading pairs are comfortably pointing higher. The one currency that looked vulnerable, The British Pound, looks to be testing its' top in earnest. The one market that stands out is Pork bellies, but considering the oddity of the pork trading complex it may just be a case of contract expiry that launches prices up to the anticipated target of 127. Regardless, refer to this weeks' commodity trading blog for more...

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of October 30, 2009

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10/30/09: A small bounce in the US dollar index occurred this week as the bear slide in the greenback hits its 1/2 year mark. While the bear flagpole formation suggested downside targets would come in near 77, there isn't a tradable bottom in the US dollar index yet. Most existing price patterns continue to exert themselves with just a couple markets breaking their existing trends. Two charts of note this week include the Canadian stock market (refer to WCTS 10/30) and a rather large bull flag pole formation in Pork Bellies.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of October 23, 2009

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10/23/09: The US Dollar continues its march lower and is looking to test the lows of July, 2008 at or near 71.71. The reflation of the world economy has rallied many commodity prices back into their pre-crash trading ranges and one ought to (at least for the short term) look for higher prices to come. Most notably, Crude Oil and Heating Oil have broken their recent respective 'tops' and Soy Oil has put in a very interesting base. As well, both coffee and OJ look like they have completed a basing pattern and could 'pop' on any bullish market news very much like sugar did recently.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week ofSeptember 25, 2009

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09/25/09: After a lengthy vacation, CRI is back reporting on the weekly trends in prices. The US dollar continues to move lower vs most of its major trading partners. The British Pound would be a notable exception as economic conditions have worsened there and the pound looks to be pointing lower vs. the green back. Of particular interest this week, energy prices have moved lower in earnest. Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline have well established tops in place and one ought to be looking for lower prices going forward.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com