WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 19th, 2009

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061909: In another week of churning, many of the major commodity markets continued their recent trending activity. Of particular note this week, a few of the soft markets (coffee, sugar & cotton) are showing signs of weakness. Could this be the beginning of the end of the recent rally in commodity prices? It is too early to tell but it is interesting to note that the long bearish meat complex (a complex that moves in opposite direction to grain prices) has begun to show signs of strength. Considering our proximity to the end of the 2nd quarter, one might want to wait before putting on any new positions until the 3rd quarter had begun in earnest.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 12th, 2009

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061209: The major currencies did little this week as too the interest rate market. The S&P and Dow have confirmed their recent breakouts and now suggest that equities could be moving into a blow off top stage. This may culminate in a dramatic move to the upside. Unfortunately (as time tested technicians) we know that at some point we will need to come back down and test the winter '09 lows. The farther we move up without a serious counter trend test, the more severe the correction ultimately will be. Keep in mind, there are gaps on the S&P 500 right near the lows. Very interesting times indeed for equity investors. Elsewhere, most of the recent trends remain well intact with a bit of weakness coming in on Soy Oil and what looks to be a blow off bottom potentially forming in Pork Bellies (refer to this week's spotlight for more on that). We may be nearing a seasonal peak for the grains and meats so those involved be careful.



That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of June 5th, 2009

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060509: The anticipated pull back in the major currencies vs. the US Dollar materialized this week. While still too early to be looking for a trade, many of its trading pairs have hit their upside objectives and one ought to consider a period of consolidation before their next moves. Interestingly, gold never did break out (only breaking its recent sell pattern) suggesting that the greenback may not be as weak as its price suggests. In other markets, US equities finally broke the sell patterns going back more than half a year. While the Nasdaq, Australia and Japan where already pointing higher, the Dow and the S&P 500 noww too have bullish short/med. term chart patterns working (refer to this week's spotlight for more). Agriculturally speaking, grain prices continue to look up at the same time as meat prices are breaking to new lows. While I have been a proponent of being long the grains of late, I have taken some profits as prices have moved up quite a bit. I will be looking to re-enter my long position on any correction.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 29th, 2009

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052909: Downside targets have been hit on the US dollar index. Those playing the currencies should be aware of potentially over-extended short term pairs and act accordingly. Bond markets too are looking to be over extended as interest rates have moved higher in earnest over the past weeks. As a result of this straight move up, short term profit taking ought to be considered in this environment. Even though many of the commodity markets are moving higher, the only market to register a new buy signal this week was Lumber (see this weeks spotlight for more details).


That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 22th, 2009

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052209: The Euro has now joined almost the entire world in its collective rally against the US dollar. Interestingly, Gold is now the only metal not to break out higher as Silver is now pointing higher along with Copper, Platinum and Palladium (this weeks WCTS spotlight is on Silver). Energies and Grains continue to power forward. Readers of CRI's Newsletter will of course be well aware of my bullishness on the two and my current long positions in their respective ETF's . Wheat still looks like it hasn't popped yet so if there was one market I might pick up a call in, it would be there.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

WCTS Spotlight for the week of May 8th, 2009

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050809: The US dollar is breaking down vs some of its major trading partners as money leaves the 'safe haven' of US treasuries on the expectation that global economic growth will once again resume (please refer to RI's most recent special report on the Australian dollar for more). One result of the perceived end of 'the crisis' - bond markets are breaking down in earnest. It should be noted that the crash of 1987 was preceded by the bond market breaking down in the spring of that year. While the Dow and S&P 500 are still pointing lower, many other stock index's are moving higher in a classic 'V' shaped bottom. These lows ought to be tested again in the coming months if not quarters. Lets hope it doesn't come in just one day. Commodity prices are moving higher with notable price action in Heating Oil (Crude and Unleaded already moving higher) and many of the Grains. This week's spotlight is on just this market....watch out food prices!

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com/

WCTS Spotlight for the week of December 19th, 2008

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121908: The dramatic up-move in the US dollar has calmed down and is starting to correct. As a result, most of the short trades in the European currencies have hit their respective stops. Interestingly, neither of the commodity currencies (Cdn. dollar & Aussie dollar) have yet to bottom vs. the greenback. Interest rates around the world continue to fall as the economic picture still looks rather cloudy. Similarly, most equity markets continue to point lower even though we are entering a seasonally strong period for stocks. Short trades still dominate the majority of commodities but it is worthy to note the age of these down moves. One ought to expect some sort of counter trend rally relatively soon. Most notably, Cotton prices have bottomed and look to be one of the only commodities currently in rally mode. Is this a leading indicator? Only time will tell.

That's all for this issue of the WCTS Spotlight,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com/